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Worldwide Market Research

Wireless Broadband

Will WiMAX Replace 3G and Fixed Broadband?
December, 2004   English Version  $2,495.00   191pages


The two fastest growing markets in the history of telecommunications; mobile telephony and fixed broadband access, are happening right now. The opportunity for bringing mobility and broadband access together has never been grater. Wireless Broadband technologies will make a dramatic comeback from the unsuccessful attempts to use them to offer broadband services in 1999 and 2000.

We define Wireless Broadband as a wireless service that provides at lease 384kbps in downstream direction and with specifications and pricing intended to compete with DSL and other wireline broadband technologies. While this definition includes 3G technologies that are at the low end, WiMAX services at 1 Mbps downstream will provide the performance that this market is really looking for.

Several important things have changed to give Wireless Broadband a second look:

· Technical advances such as OFDM have extended the range of wireless technologies and improved their abilities to bypass and penetrate into structures with non-line-of-sight propagation. The worldÕs television broadcasters have already implemented digital terrestrial services based on OFDM and proved its effectiveness. OFDM is also used in the wireless LAN standard IEEE 802.1 1a.
· The IEEE802.16 and ETSI Hyperlan committees have developed wireless standards that apply to broadband applications and are currently extended these standards to give them a degree of mobility.
· The WiMAX Forum has been formed to insure interoperability of IEEE802.16 implementations by creating implementation profiles and will be certifying to them, following the successful example of WiFi Forum.
· Major companies including Intel and Proxim have endorsed WiMAX and are promising components that can be used to build low cost systems.
· The 3GPP groupÕs IP Multimedia Subsystem(IMS), which uses SIP for signaling, is available not only for converging fixed and mobile networks but may be used by incumbent and new service providers alike for IP based Broadband Wireless networks.

The WiMAX forum is focusing on point-to-multipoint technologies using a spectrum of 2 to 11GHz. The point-to-multipoint technology permit the service provider to offer service to anybody within the covered area. At 10GHz and below, rain fading is not a significant issue, so the radius served is larger than with higher frequencies and can extend to the horizon if the transmit is high enough.

We expect that WiMAX technology will capture a significant share of Wireless Broadband market and will attract a large number of subscribers who will use WiMAX in place of DSL or some other wireline broadband service. On the other hand 3G will attract users who are primarily interested in mobility. Most subscribers will use 3G to supplement rather replace a wireline broadband service.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary

  1.1 Introduction
  1.2 Market Landscape
    1.2.1 The Battle of Standards
    1.2.2 The Search for Spectrum
    1.2.3 Regulatory Issues
    1.2.4 Deployments
  1.3 Opportunities for Fixed and Mobile Convergence
    1.3.1 The Business Case for Wireless Broadband
    1.3.2 Market Forecasts
    1.3.3 Conclusions
    1.3.4 Recommendations

2. Wireless Standards, Spectrum, and Regulatory Landscape

  2.1 Standards
    2.1.1 Personal Broadband Alliance
    2.1.2 WiMAX Forum
    2.1.3 IEEE 802.16(WiMAX) Technologies
    2.1.4 IEEE 802.20 Mobile Wireless Broadband Access Working Group
    2.1.5 ITU IMT-2000
    2.1.6 WCDMA (UMTS)
    2.1.7 TD-SCDMA
    2.1.8 HSDPA
    2.1.9 UMTS-TDD (also known as TD-CDMA)
    2.1.10 CDMA2000
    2.1.11 Other Wireless Broadband Technologies
  2.2 Spectrum Allocations
    2.2.1 ITU Fixed Wireless Access (3.4 to 3.8 GHz)
    2.2.2 IMT-2000
    2.2.3 U.S. Wireless Broadband Spectrum
    2.2.4 Industrial, Scientific, and Medical (ISM)
    2.2.5 Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure (UNII)
  2.3 Regulatory Outlook
  2.4 Fixed versus Mobile Applications
  2.5 New Services

3. Trials, Early Network Deployments and the Lessons

  3.1 Wi-Fi Hotspots
    3.1.1 T-Mobile
    3.1.2 Swisscom
  3.2 2.5G Technologies - GPrS, CDMA2000 1x, and iMode
  3.3 3G Prospects
  3.4 iBurst and PWdSL
    3.4.1 Personal Broadband Australia
    3.4.2 Wireless Broadband Systems - South Africa
    3.4.3 BroadBandOne Networks - USA
  3.5 Other Wireless Broadband Technologies
    3.5.1 Nextel - USA
    3.5.2 Clearwire - USA
    3.5.3 Evertek - U.S.
    3.5.4 MVS Net - Mexico
    3.5.5 UK Broadband
    3.5.6 Airdata AG - Germany
    3.5.7 Altitude Telecom - France
  3.6 The Lessons

4. Business Case Examples

  4.1 Metropolitan Area Wireless Broadband Deployment
    4.1.1 Metro Assumptions
    4.1.2 Metro Results
    4.1.3 Metro Business Case Analysis
  4.2 Rural Area Wireless Broadband Deployment
    4.2.1 Rural Assumptions
    4.2.2 Rural Results
  4.3 Deployment Examples
    4.3.1 Large Urban Deployment
    4.3.2 Rural Deployment

5. Market Forecasts

  5.1 Market Environment
    5.1.1 The Addressable Market for Fixed and Portable Applications
    5.1.2 ARPU and Value-Added Services
    5.1.3 VolP and Network Convergence
    5.1.4 Wireless Broadband
  5.2 Forecast Methodology
  5.3 Regional Forecasts
    5.3.1 Global Summary
    5.3.2 Western Europe
    5.3.3 Eastern Europe
    5.3.4 Russian Federation
    5.3.5 Middle East and Africa
    5.3.6 Low Income Asia - Pacific
    5.3.7 High Income Asia-Pacific
    5.3.8 North America
    5.3.9 Latin America including the Carribean

6. Conclusions & Recommendations

  6.1 Conclusions
    6.1.1 Technologies
    6.1.2 Wireless Broadband Markets
    6.1.3 Fixed Applications
    6.1.4 Portable Applications
    6.1.5 Mobile Applications
  6.2 Recommendations
    6.2.1 Service Providers
    6.2.2 Equipment Vendors
    6.2.3 Regulators
    6.2.4 Investors

7. Glossary

8. Appendix I: Service Provider Profiles

  8.1 Network Deployments
    8.1.1 UMTS-TDD
    8.1.2 WCDMA (UMTS-FDD)
    8.1.3 CDMA2000
  8.2 Service Provider Profiles
    8.2.1 iPass
    8.2.2 UK Broadband
    8.2.3 Verizon Wireless

9. Appendix II: Vendor Profile

  9.1 WiMAX/PreWiMAX Vendor Profiles
    9.1.1 Alvarion
    9.1.2 Aperto Networks
    9.1.3 BeamReach Networks
    9.1.4 Navini Networks
    9.1.5 Redline Communications
    9.1.6 SR Telecom
  9.2 Other Wireless Broadband Vendor Profiles
    9.2.1 ArrayComm
    9.2.2 DragonWave Inc.
    9.2.3 Flarion
    9.2.4 IPWireless
    9.2.5 Motorola
    9.2.6 Orthogon Systems
    9.2.7 UTSarcom
  9.3 3G Mobile Vendor Profiles
    9.3.1 Alcatel
    9.3.2 Lucent Technologies
    9.3.3 Nokia
    9.3.4 Nortel Networks
  9.4 Wireless Local Loop Vendor Profile
    9.4.1 Airspan Networks
    9.4.2 Proxim
    9.4.3 Vyyo Inc.
    9.4.4 ZTE Corporation
  9.5 Other Profiles
    9.5.1 AMF Ventures
    9.5.2 Cutting The Wires
    9.5.3 Intel

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